Informality, Gender Employment Gap, and COVID-19 in Mexico: Identifying Persistence and Dynamic Structural Effects

The objective is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamics Mexican labor market (formal-informal employment) by gender. It built consistent micro-founded time-series from 1987:Q1 2019:Q4 using urban employment surveys and estimate a VAR model linking aggregate production each segment. Our results suggest significant adverse effects formal resulting pandemic, with lengthy job recovery for females males. informal sector in both genders presents lower forecasted response initial shock but substantial observed losses, potentially linked structural changes market. In crisis, not substitute losses. complexity this crisis suggests crafting policies improve easiness enhance while promoting gender equality. main contribution diverse losses segments critical change focusing employment.